Friday Racing Tips: Two to back from Day 3 of the Dante and one from Newbury
The five ITV4 races on Friday – four from York, one from Newbury – aren't the most appetising, betting-wise, so today's column is far shorter, but hopefully sweeter, than usual.
I am not going to waste any of your time with my thoughts in what looks an impossible Listed fillies' race at 14:55. Basically, any of the seven could win, five were last time out winners, and most have any amount of improvement in them given their unexposed profiles.
Similar comments apply to the Yorkshire Cup at 15:30 where a win for seven out of the eight wouldn't surprise. So cue a shock victory for the outsider High Jinx, having his first start for Tim Easterby.
Back Burguillos to build on Leicester win in handicap
If I was forced to have a bet in the 1m4f handicap at York at 16:05 then it would be recent Leicester winner Burguillos at around the 9/2 mark, as he is 2lb well-in here even with his 6lb penalty. The problem is that win came on fast ground and conditions will obviously be very different here.
I say forced, as I was all set to leave the race alone to be honest, but I had a re-think, which is always handy when betting (hopefully). The ground didn't seem to be that bad at York today and he does have a good to soft win on his dance card already.
He impressed me with the way he picked up at Leicester, his first run since being gelded, and I think Alan King could have another decent middle-distance handicapper on his hands. The extra 2f or so looked like it would be welcomed at Leicester, as he travelled well there and lengthened like a horse with plenty more to come when asked to put the race to bed.
Back him at [5.5] or bigger, for all there are at least a couple of other potential big improvers in here as well.
Mistress of Venice the best long-odds shout of the day
I am loathe to file any column without at least one 33/1 poke in it – I was joking, before anyone thinks I am tipping an outsider for the sake of it – but the two James Given fillies in the 14:20 immediately came across my radar.
The stable have been going pretty well in recent weeks and, as regular readers may know, I have always been interested in Given two-year-olds second time up.
And I think his Mistress Of Venice is worth a small-stakes nibble at [34.0] or bigger.
She did a lot wrong on her debut at Beverley but shaped with far more promise than her modest effort there suggested – she wasn't given a hard race at all after taking a long while to get the hang of things on what can prove a tricky track for newcomers – and that will hopefully have brought her on a ton.
She could well be taken off her feet here against a whole host of winners, but Luke Morris obviously thinks it is worth stopping off for the one ride at York en route to a busy night at Newcastle and I am happy to throw a few quid at his filly.
Raise a toast to Boy In the Bar at Newbury
Down at Newbury, Boy In The Bar is worth backing at [14.0] or bigger in the 6f handicap at 14:35.
He needed a couple of runs to put him straight last season but he struck form with a vengeance in the summer, winning over course and distance, following up at Ascot, and then running three good races in defeat thereafter.
He went up 10lb for that series of good runs, but he has at least come down 2lb since, and I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he only beat one home in his return at Goodwood.
That was over 5f for starters, and without the blinkers that he wore for those two summer 6f successes, and that will hopefully have teed him up nicely for this.
The headgear is back on, the easier ground shouldn't be a problem (he has won on soft ground) and, as has been touched upon before, the Ian Williams stable is having a good year.
There is no shortage of dangers, chief among them Ice Age – and Clear Spring is going for his third straight win in this race – but Boy In The Bar is worth a nibble at a double-figure price.