O’Brien star can tan Trophy rivals
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and picks out the key statistics.
Yucatan can become another winning favourite
Aidan O'Brien has tended to dominate the Racing Post Trophy whether he has saddled the winner – something he has done three times in the last decade – or not.
The Ballydoyle maestro saddled three of the seven runners 12 months ago and two of the first four home (eight ran) in 2014 and three of the 11 runners in 2013.
None of those runners managed to win the race but the ominous thing for Yucatan's rivals is that the last three O'Brien favourites have all hit the mark with only Eagle Mountain (fourth in the mud behind Authorized in 2006) failing to complete the clean sweep.
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Yucatan failed to win last time out but he did finish a close second to Capri – ante-post favourite for this race – in the Beresford Stakes on heavy ground and he is widely expected to relish the faster conditions on Town Moor.
Of his opponents, Jean-Luc Lagardere runner-up Saloueen and Sir Dancealot have had more starts than a typical winner while Brutal and stablemates The Anvil and Finn McCool have been beaten more than twice already.
The two winners that failed to score on their preceding start finished second and third which suggests that Bay Of Poets and Rivet are both up against it although the latter's fifth did, at least, come in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes.
Contrapposto chased home Rivet at York and improved for the step up to an extended mile to lose his maiden at Nottingham. The collateral form suggests a case can be made on him on 'value' terms as subjective as they are but a more interesting alternative is Raheen House.
Brian Meehan sent out Crowded House to hit the number one spot in this race in 2008 while the race Raheen House contested on his second outing threw up 2006 winner Authorized (he had made his debut at Newbury).
The Sea The Stars colt has always been held in high regard and can surprise some of his better fancied rivals in chasing home Yucatan who can provide Galileo with his second winner in this race following Kingsbarns' victory in 2012.
- Eight winners won their preceding start.
- Nine winners had won over at least seven furlongs, eight of whom had won over a mile with one other placed
- Only four winners were unbeaten, of whom, only two had raced more than once.
- Only three winners made their debut before August but those three – who all ran in July – have come in the last five renewals.
- Five winners were having their first start in a Group race.
- Two winners had contested the Beresford Stakes on their preceding outing and two the Autumn Stakes.
- No winner has had more than four starts.
- No winner has been beaten more than twice.
- Seven favourites have been successful.
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