Phil’ yer boots at Kempton
Ben Linfoot backs one from the in-form Roger Varian yard for the tip of the day, while he's also on a 50/1 chance at Brighton.
Roger Varian: In great form
Roger Varian's stable has been flying ever since he turned a corner at York's Ebor Festival, where Postponed's Juddmonte International victory catapulted his yard out of a quiet spell blighted by infections.
The Newmarket handler's love affair with Doncaster continued last week to highlight the good form of the stable, the victories of Mount Logan, Central Square and Spangled coming at the home of the St Leger, a race Kingston Hill won in 2014 to give Varian his first Classic win.
A double at Ffos Las yesterday from two runners continued Varian's good form and he has four chances at Kempton today, the first three of which are single-figure prices in maidens. The once-raced Pichola Dance looks particularly interesting against plenty of newcomers in the 3.10.
However, the one Varian horse I want to back this afternoon is PHILADELPHIA in the ApolloBet Premier League Cashback Handicap at 4.45 at the general 14/1.
This horse finished last on his latest start at Sandown, which half explains his big price today, but he was on the back foot from an early stage under a 7lb claimer after being awkwardly away and nothing came from off the pace in the race.
On his Windsor third in July he has a good chance today off a 1lb lower mark and the key could be a good gallop on his Kempton Park debut.
A strong pace looks ensured with Finelcity, Tripartite, Ravens Quest and Iberica Road likely to be up there from an early stage and there are reasons to believe Philadelphia will handle the Polytrack well.
Both of his half-brothers ran well on the Polytrack in France, with Andhesontherun winning a good conditions race on the surface at Chantilly as a two-year-old.
Andrea Atzeni is back in the saddle today and he'll likely hold up the son of Roderic O'Connor from his wide draw. He's not broken out of the stalls well at all on his last four starts, but they were all in a hood and that is left off today.
Over at Brighton I can't resist a little go on 50/1 chance CHANDRESH in the starsportsbet.co.uk Handicap at 4.00.
This horse's big odds are easily explained as she's hardly beaten a rival in her last three starts, beaten a combined total of 43 lengths.
However, her last two goes have been over five furlongs and you wouldn't say she was an obvious one to drop in trip after her career-best performance at Brighton in July, where she rallied well to finish second over six.
On that evidence and on pedigree the step up to seven furlongs this afternoon could unlock some improvement, and she is 8lb lower now than she was when second at the track two months ago.
That wasn't a bad race, either, as the winner, Fang, has won again subsequently, while the fourth, fifth and sixth have all franked the form in victory since too.
On the flip side Chandresh could be completely out of love with the game, but there's more than enough there for a small play at 50s.