Sea can make waves at Newmarket
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of the Betfred Cesarewitch and Dubai Dewhurst Stakes and picks out the key stats.
Sea Of Heaven (maroon silks) has each-way claims from a low draw
However, hopes will be high that either St Michel or Starchitect will provide some much needed respite and both runners are likely to continue to be well supported.
St Michel highlighted his ability in the Group Two Doncaster Cup and bids to become the first three-year-old to win since Darley Sun justified favouritism by five lengths in 2009.
Like St Michel, Darley Sun had contested the Town Moor contest on his previous outing, finishing second which resulted in him being 12lbs ahead of the handicapper in this early closing contest. Sir Mark Prescott's three-year-old is 15lbs ahead of the assessor and his chance is there for all to see although a draw in 32 may not be ideal with the majority of winners drawn middle to low.
The draw is a possible negative for Starchitect as he bids to provide David Pipe with his first winner in this race as he bids to follow in his father's steps in training a winner of this valuable Flat prize.
Horses trained by predominantly National Hunt handlers have an excellent record with half of the last 10 renewals falling to such runners and the form of the five-year-old's Salisbury win is working out really well. He has been off since that win in May but similar absences have been overcome in the past.
None of the field can be ruled out on account of their age but the majority of winners have come from a fairly narrow ratings band with only the two oldest winners – dual scorer Aaim To Prosper and 11-year-old Caracciola – rated higher than 94 while none have been rated lower than 87.
Strictly applying those ratings can reduce the contenders by about half and that's even allowing a stay of execution for Oriental Fox who finished second from a higher mark last year. Three renewals have fallen to a runner with previous experience of this race including that won by dual winner Aaim To Prosper who was aged eight and carrying 9-10 second time around.
Renneti also ran well in last year's renewal when finishing fourth and the last two winners of this race have been aged seven but he is another who will have to overcome a wide draw.
Better berthed is The Cashel Man who ran well in the trial over course and distance but the owner's regular jockey Jamie Spencer rides Starchitect which can't be viewed as a vote of confidence for all that a top-drawer replacement has been booked in William Buick.
Sea Of Heaven isn't ridden by the stable's first choice jockey either but he is better drawn than his stablemate and proved his stamina for this test when splitting Sweet Selection and Montaly at Newbury. He won a fair trial for this race in the Brown Jack Stakes at Ascot in July and will be better suited by the return to a more galloping track following his staying on fifth at Chester; his single figure draw earns him the each-way vote.
- Winners have been aged 3, 4 (three), 6 (two), 7 (two), 8 and 11.
- Winners have carried between 7-13 and 9-10 with seven between 7-13 and 8-11.
- Winners have been rated between 87 and 107 with eight between 87 and 94.
- Six winners had been drawn between 1 & 12 with four between 1 & 4.
- Winners have been priced between 9/2 and 66/1 with five at 16s or less, including two favourites.
- Seven winners finished in the first four on their previous outing under either code.
- Seven winners had won or been placed in a class 3 handicap or above over 1m 6f or further. Six of the last nine had won or been placed a class 2 handicap over 2 miles.
- Seven winners had raced between 2 and 7 times during the current season; one had raced more.
- Seven winners (including one seasonal debutant) had failed to win a race during the current season.
- Six winners had won a race with a field of 14 runners or more (under either code).
- All of the winners had had at least 10 career starts.
Irish trainers have provided eight of the last 10 winners of the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes with the oddly absent Jim Bolger responsible for five and Aidan O'Brien three.
The latter is predictably represented and Churchill has strong claims of handing his handler his third win in the race in four years.
His sire, Galileo, is responsible for three winners in this period with War Front and Lope De Vega other previously successful stallions with progeny in the line-up. This is Frankel's first season and it will obviously be fascinating to see how Seven Heavens fares but John Gosden's colt has yet to tackle pattern company which is a negative on the stats.
Blue Point lacks form over seven furlongs, something which the majority of winners have possessed, although he did look ready for a stiffer test in the Middle Park Stakes a fortnight ago.
Rivet was beaten on debut in July whereas the only debut defeats from the last 10 winners had come in May over six furlongs; a fate which befell Churchill.
Perhaps the biggest threat may come from the unbeaten South Seas but victory for him would be an anomaly as he has yet to tackle Group Two or Group One company.
- Six winners won their preceding start, nine finished in the first four.
- Four winners were unbeaten.
- Six winners had won a race at Group Two or above and all bar one of the exceptions had been placed at Group Two or above
- Seven winners had won over seven furlongs or beyond.
- Six favourites have been successful but three winners have been returned between 20/1 & 33s.
- Eight winners made their debut after April.
- All winners had raced at least three times.
- All winners ran in a Group race on their preceding start.
- Eight winners made a successful debut, those that were beaten made their debuts in May over 6 furlongs.
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