Stats not all doom for Arod
Ian Ogg picks out the key stats from the last 10 renewals of the Prestige Stakes and Doom Bar Celebration Mile at Goodwood.
Arod is worth chancing at a price in the Celebration Mile
The Prestige Stakes has been a decent race for favourites over the last 10 years with six jollies obliging although there have been reverses as you would expect.
Sky Lantern was beaten by half a length by Ollie Olga in 2012 while Hawksmoor denied Fireglow by a nose last season.
The race isn't priced up at the time of writing but Grecian Light looks a likely market leader following a fair second in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket, a Group Three which has produced two winners of this contest in the last decade.
On Her Toes was only a neck behind in third that day (Tiburtina fifth, Belle Meade seventh) but has had more runs than any other recent winner of this race and the same is true of Urban Fox and Sky Bet Lowther Stakes disappointment Kilmah who had previously chased home Fair Eva in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot.
Promising is still a maiden which leaves maiden winners Arwa and Rich Legacy as alternatives.
Two once-raced maiden winners have been successful in Fantasia and Sense Of Joy. Both made winning debuts at Newmarket winning by 3 1/4 lengths and 5 lengths and both were sent off as favourite despite the steep rise in class.
Rich Legacy also won at Newmarket – by one and a quarter lengths – where she beat a stablemate (a colt) of Grecian Light's and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of her chance.
Arwa won a six furlong Ripon maiden by two and a quarter lengths and seems certain to relish the longer trip as she's a half-sister to Ascot Gold Cup winner Order Of St George among others.
Neither could be confidently ruled out but Grecian Light sets a decent standard and gets the vote.
- Winners have been priced between 4/7 and 9/1.
- Six favourites have been successful.
- Seven winners won their preceding start, the three exceptions ran in Group Three company finishing 6th, 2nd and 3rd.
- Five winners had their preceding start in August and four in the last 10 days of July; the exception ran on 11th July.
- Winners had had between one and three career starts.
Sir Michael Stoute has saddled two winners of the Doom Bar Celebration Mile in the last decade with Zacinto benefiting from Delegator's subsequent disqualification in 2009.
His decision to supplement Thoroughbred Stakes winner Thikriyaat clearly looks significant and the three-year-old could become the third winner of this race to have emerged from that race at the Glorious Goodwood meeting.
Three winners have come via the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury, a race won by Zonderland who attempts to follow in the steps of stablemate Kodi Bear who completed the double 12 months ago. Clive Cox has made no secret of the regard in which he holds his colt who has finished sixth (2000 Guineas) and eighth (Prix Jean Prat) on his two Group One assignments.
The majority of winners had already achieved a higher finish at the top level and the three older horses fit that bill.
Toormore, however, looks up against it under a penalty while the other pair failed to achieve a top-four finish last time out.
Little has gone right for Arod since he finished second to Solow in the Sussex Stakes 12 months ago but trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam believes the five-year-old is back to full health and a reproduction of his best form should see him go close but he does need conditions to stay on the fast side.
Lightning Spear was behind Arod in the Summer Mile at Ascot last year and behind Toormore in the Sussex Stakes over this course and distance last month; he could have his work cut out to reverse that form even with a swing in the weights in his favour.
Thikriyaat will undoubtedly rate higher than his current mark of 110 and both he and Zonderland have obvious claims for a generation that has held the upper hand in the last decade.
This hasn't been a great race for favourites though and the temptation is to take a chance with Arod. A good deal has to be taken on trust but there are potentially valid excuses for his recent struggles and last summer's form gives him leading claims in this company.
- Winners have been aged three (6), five (2), six and eight.
- Winners have been priced between 1/2 and 20/1 with nine in single figures.
- Three favourites have been successful.
- Winners have been officially rated between 107 and 122 with seven 111+.
- Eight winners finished in the first four on their preceding start.
- Nine winners had won at Listed level or higher, the exception had been third in a Group Three.
- Seven winners had been placed or finished in the first three in a Group One.