Stats point to Rhododendron
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Friday's Dubai Fillies' Mile at Newmarket and picks out the key statistics.
Rhododendron can get the better of Hydrangea (l)
It is no surprise that the power house operations of Godolphin and Ballydoyle have dominated the Dubai Fillies' Mile and they have been responsible for six of the last 10 winners.
Aidan O'Brien has won the last two renewals with Minding and 7/1 chance Together Forever while Godolphin completed a hat-trick between 2010 and 2012.
O'Brien's pair set the standard having finished second and third in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last time with Hydrangea one place in front of Rhododendron and Minding came to this race via that Curragh Group One.
The Moyglare winner Intricately doesn't line up and in her absence, impressive maiden winner Sobetsu heads the betting for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin.
No winner in this period has landed this race without having previously contested a patter race. The last runner to do so was Red Bloom in 2003 and it's interesting that her connections are represented by Spatial who has a similar profile.
The May Hill Stakes has been a decent guide, providing six winners including all five between 2008 and 2012 and the winner of the Doncaster Group Two Rich Legacy lines up in an attempt to improve on that record.
She fits the stats but O'Brien has saddled Galileo fillies to win the last two renewals of this race and Rhododendron is fancied to complete a hat-trick and reverse the Moyglare form
It looks significant that Ryan Moore prefers her to Hydrangea (whom he has never ridden) and it doesn't take a great leap of faith to see her stepping up on recent efforts on her first attempt over a mile and back on a faster surface which she handled so well when impressively winning her maiden at Goodwood.
- Winners have been priced between 4/7 and 28/1 with seven 10/3 or shorter.
- Five favourites have been successsful with a further three placed.
- Winners had had between two and five career starts.
- Four winners were unbeaten, three had won only once and one was a maiden.
- Six winners had their preceding start in the May Hill Stakes, five were successful and the other was second.
- Accordingly, eight winners had their preceding start in September. The exceptions ran on August 28 and October 12.
- Eight winners finished no worse than third on their debuts with five successful.
- Eight winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.8 or greater.