The Briefing: Paul Kealy’s pointers for Newbury after going change
Newbury: going has turned heavy from good to firm overnight
PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos) The Briefing: betting,
going and non-runners By Peter Scargill 9:00AM 16 SEP 2016
Today's big races
3.40 Ayr: Shadwell Stud/EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes
3.45 Listowel: Guinness Handicap (Premier Handicap)
3.55 Newbury: Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes
4.15 Ayr: William Hill Ayr Bronze Cup
4.25 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes
Ayr: Soft, good to soft in places
Newbury: Heavy (from good to firm, good in places)
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Hexham: Good, good to soft in places
Newton Abbot: Good, good to soft in places
Listowel: Heavy (Flat), Soft to heavy, heavy in places (jumps)
4.15 Ayr: 18. Noble Peace
3.55 Newbury: 3. Law And Order, 4. Ultimate Avenue, 7. Red Ensign
4.25 Newbury: 6. Naadirr, 2. Certificate, 8.Yuften
We can expect a huge amount of non-runners after 74mm of overnight rain turned the going to heavy at Newbury, but a few horses might be in their element, writes Paul Kealy.
The opening two maidens do not feature many horses by sires whose progeny are renowned for soft-ground performers, which is hardly surprising givin the initial going.
No Not Again (1.40 Newbury)
No Not Again is by Roderic O'Connor, who has had one winner on heavy plus three more seconds from ten runners and can also boast a 17 per cent strike-rate on soft ground. The concern there is that trainer Richard Hannon has only a two per cent strike-rate in September.
Leah Freya (2.45 Newbury)
Leah Freya has run just three times on ground with cut, finishing 141 and one of those successes came on heavy ground. All her best form is at Epsom, but that may just be a coincidence.
Another with Epsom-winning soft-ground form is Gawdawpalin, who hosed up in a valuable handicap that worked out very well on Derby day. He didn't run well back from a break last time, but that was on much faster ground.
Cymro (3.20 Newbury)
Cymro seems fairly obvious. He scored his first ever win on ground faster than good to soft at Haydock last time, but was at his most impressive at the start of the season when bolting up on soft ground at Thirsk.
Code Red/Aclaim (4.25 Newbury)
Those to have won on soft or heavy ground include Code Red. William Muir's five-year-old won a Listed contest on soft at Doncaster in the autumn of 2014 and despite finishing last of six in a Group 3 at Goodwood last time, wasn't beaten far.
In the same race Acclaim, a fast-ground winner over a mile last time, had no problem with easy ground when a heavily-punted winner at Newmarket in April. His proven ability over further will be an asset.
Pasaka Boy (5.30 Newbury)
Pasaka Boy could be of interest. It's fair to say he has been out of form in four starts this season since missing a year, but is 12lb lower now and his form figures on soft or heavy read 183142. One of those wins came in this very race in 2013.
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