Tip of the day: Flaming good

The 2015 French Guineas eleventh could finally be blossoming and can continue to make up for lost time at Newcastle says Ian Ogg.

Flaming Spear gained his first win since debut last time

Flaming Spear, 4.30 Newcastle

You can celebrate dry January by backing Sober Up in the 8.00 at Chelmsford City this evening.

It's not just the name that takes the eye for Ivan Furtado's mare who has dropped 7lbs for three, admittedly poor, runs at Southwell. That has left her 4lbs above the mark from which she gained her sole career success at this track over a furlong shorter.

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The first price available was 20/1 but that's long since gone and the five-year-old is a general 8/1 chance although there are some signs that she may drift during the course of the day.

At a similar price, the suggestion is to back Flaming Spear in the valuable and hugely competitive seven furlong handicap at Newcastle.

Kevin Ryan's relatively lightly raced five-year-old has always been highly rated and remained in the yard after being sold by owners Qatar Racing. He has flattered to deceive more often than not since running a respectable eleventh in the French Guineas but came good at this track last time despite racing keenly.

The drop back to seven furlongs shouldn't prove to be a problem in light of that and he's always looked to have enough speed anyway. Nor should a 5lb rise prove insurmountable given his latent talent but the key questions are whether he can replicate that effort and then whether that is good enough to beat a stronger and in-form field.

Those are questions I don't have the answer to but at 9/1 I'm prepared to pay to find out.

Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Tip Of The Day with guaranteed prices at 1000 every morning.

What does this mean? From 1000 (BST) on the morning of publication, Sky Bet will be industry-best price on all selections in the Tip Of The Day column for ONE HOUR until 1100 (BST). In the event of non-runners having had a material effect on the market since publication, Sky Bet will guarantee to offer the top-price in the market place.

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