Tip of the Day: Home comforts
Ben Linfoot is in the Tip of the Day chair with Peter Bowen fancied to strike with his sole runner at Ludlow.
Peter Bowen: Could have a winner at Ludlow
Peter Bowen had a disappointing day on Saturday when his Henri Parry Morgan ran below form in the Hennessy, but his yard could well bounce back at a much lower level with their sole runner on the card at Ludlow this afternoon.
On the face of it, GET HOME NOW has some uninspiring form figures ahead of his run in the Breedon Aggregates Handicap Hurdle (2.10), but a combination of factors could well help him end a losing streak stretching back 13 races today.
In any case, prices around the 10/1 mark seem to underestimate his chance.
Firstly, he's got a good chance from a handicapping point of view. A mark of 104 is 10lb lower than his last winning mark and the last time he raced off a rating lower than this one, albeit in June 2013, he won by 22 lengths without fuss under today's rider, Tom O'Brien, at Uttoxeter.
Secondly, the lack of headgear is interesting. That Uttoxeter win came in first-time cheekpieces, and while they worked again two starts later they haven't had the winning effect since. A visor has never worked and neither have blinkers – though the latter did inspire him to second when they were first employed at Uttoxeter in September.
But when the headgear was left off in the late summer/early autumn of 2014 he finished 2-1-2, the win being his victory off a mark of 114 – the last time he got his head in front.
It is with hope then that the lack of headgear can be as inspiring as when cheekpieces and blinkers were employed for the first time.
Thirdly, today's conditions look set to suit. The drying good to soft ground is ideal and the small field is also what he wants. He's struggled in double-digit fields the last twice, but prior to that he ran well off higher marks than today's at Uttoxeter and Newton Abbot when second and fourth in single-digit line-ups.
The main reason for that is because he likes to dominate and he could well get the run of things in that respect today, as he's the only front runner in the field judging by past form.
He isn't the most reliable horse by any means, but there are enough factors in his favour today to have a small bet at a double-figure prices.
Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Tip Of The Day with guaranteed prices at 1000 every morning.
What does this mean? From 1000 (BST) on the morning of publication, Sky Bet will be industry-best price on all selections in the Tip Of The Day column for ONE HOUR until 1100 (BST). In the event of non-runners having had a material effect on the market since publication, Sky Bet will guarantee to offer the top-price in the market place.
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