Tip of the day: Pale rider

Ian Ogg is hoping that the 'lucky last' lives up to its billing as he heads to Wolverhampton for the tip of the day.

Callum Shepherd rides Palenville for Simon Crisford

Palenville – 5.05 Wolverhampton

The dangers of backing a once-raced maiden at a short price are manifold but Nurse Nightingale showed eminent promise on her debut at Kempton.

Trainer Hugo Palmer and jockey Josephine Gordon continue in good form with the latter now officially part of the strong Newmarket yard and they have live chances of claiming another winner with the Nathaniel filly.

Her sire filled the one, two, three on debut and has two other representatives in this race but perhaps the biggest threat may come from likely looking newcomers Utopian Dream – whose trainer provided the winner of the Kempton race – and Ocean Drive.

Their presence does ensure she's a backable price at around 6/4 but for today's selection I'll side with the favourite in the finale at Wolverhampton.

Simon Crisford has a fine record with his runners at the West Midlands track and Palenville certainly has the form in the book that entitles her to her position at the head of the market (5/2 at the time of writing).

She cut little ice in the Group Three Albany Stakes back in June and a subsequent run of fourth, second, third, second – during which she thrice returned a beaten favourite – suggests that she hasn't progressed.

However, the form of her penultimate run has worked out well with the winner and second now rated 10 and 15lbs higher while her latest vanquisher showed improved form for the fitting of blinkers.

Obviously something else could come out of the woodwork but I think she's entitled to another chance as she switches to a different surface with Crisford's record at the track a factor.

Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Tip Of The Day with guaranteed prices at 1000 every morning.

What does this mean? From 1000 (BST) on the morning of publication, Sky Bet will be industry-best price on all selections in the Tip Of The Day column for ONE HOUR until 1100 (BST). In the event of non-runners having had a material effect on the market since publication, Sky Bet will guarantee to offer the top-price in the market place.

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