Value Bet: Fair Price in Scarborough
Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot bids to follow up Saturday's 16/1 winner with one selection on the first day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster.
Priceless chases home Dancing Star at Newmarket
Value Bet Selection
The first day of the St Leger meeting hosts the lowest key card of the week, but the Listed Scarborough Stakes has been the springboard to bigger things for the likes of Sole Power and Mecca's Angel in recent times and this year's renewal houses some potential as well.
This daughter of Exceed And Excel has never run at the minimum trip, but her dam was a five-furlong winner, as was her half-sister Bright Moll, and she has shaped as though the drop in distance would be in her favour on several occasions this season.
Two examples were her fine runs in defeat in high-quality handicaps on Newmarket's July Course this summer, where she led a furlong out each time only to be denied in the run for the line.
On the first of those runs she was beaten three-quarters-of-a-length by Stewards' Cup winner Dancing Star, getting just 1lb, while she travelled strongly when going down a head to Mont Kiara on her next visit to the track.
That was handicap form off marks in the mid-to-high 90s and the performances saw her rise to 102 with the promise of more to come.
Unfortunately she took a step backwards at Pontefract last time when only fourth in a Listed race, but again she faded in the last furlong and that form looks stronger now the winner, Mehronissa, went on to finish an excellent fourth in the Haydock Sprint Cup.
Those recent efforts stack up with any recent form on show here, with market leaders Muthmir, Pearl Secret and Thesme all on losing runs stretching beyond this season.
Muthmir would win this easily on his very best form but he simply hasn't looked as good this year and he, as well as Line Of Reason and Pearl Secret, could struggle to give weight away to the fillies on Wednesday.
Demora is quite interesting returning from a break as she goes well fresh and won a Listed race in game fashion the last time she was seen. That was on soft ground, though, and she may be at her best when there is some cut.
Although it's officially Good to Soft at the time of writing, it's forecast to be dry and warm in the build-up to the race so it would be no surprise if Town Moor is a perfect lushness of 'Good' or even better by the time they're off for the Scarborough.
That's good news for Priceless, whose improvement in July came on faster ground and she should get a nice tow into the race from the speedy and consistent Thesme, a filly who is admirable enough but one that looks very short at around 3/1 on the back of her Nunthorpe fifth.
A bigger danger could be stablemate and winning machine Go On Go On Go On, a filly that's going for a four-timer after progressing through handicaps.
She's on a roll and could well go in again, but fellow Beechdown Farm resident Priceless has the better form and is a bigger price, so she gets the nod with in-form Champion Jockey Silvestre de Sousa taking the reins.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +382.84pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Posted at 1620 BST on 06/09/16.
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