Value Bet: Humidor to strike
Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot has three bets at big prices from Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday.
Humidor was second in the Portland
Value Bet Selections
There's quality, quantity and complexity on Saturday afternoon with the Group One Racing Post Trophy heading 10 live Channel 4 races that include six handicaps.
The Doncaster feature provides the quality, although I've failed to find a punting angle in the race even if I'm not sure Yucatan deserves to be quite as short as he is on what we've seen so far.
There could well be a turn up in that contest, but I'd rather have a go at the sunbets.co.uk Top Price Templegate Tips Handicap earlier on the card at 2.40, as HUMIDOR looks a big price at 18/1 (general price).
George Baker's veteran sprinter has been in good nick in the second part of the season and has been a bit unlucky not to add to his win tally after being placed on four occasions.
He wasn't beaten far in any of those four runs, which were all off similar marks to the one he runs off on Saturday – 98 – and he's more than hinted that another win is in him when everything drops right.
A prime example was at Doncaster three starts ago when he ran second in the Portland to Captain Colby. Fergus Sweeney delivered him with a withering charge on the far side and he was in front with half-a-furlong to go, only for the winner to collar him late on.
The slight extra distance beat him that day, but Humidor had the rest of them beaten off well and Captain Colby has the look of an improving horse despite his York no-show last time.
Back at five furlongs at Doncaster looks ideal for Humidor as he has always performed well on Town Moor (course record is 11352). He won his maiden here, his career-best effort remains his Scarbrough Stakes win at the track and he's performed with credit every time he's run in a handicap here off marks in the 90s.
The good thing on Saturday is the far side looks the place to be. That was the case in the big sprint handicap on Friday and all the pace is among the low numbers with Meadway, Hilary J, A Momentofmadness, Confessional and Bogart likely to blaze a trail.
That could set things up nicely for a closer like Humidor and a repeat of his effort in the Portland could well be good enough. He remains in good nick judging by his Leicester effort last time and there's plenty to like about him at the 18/1.
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Rune Haugen's colt advertised his talents on these shores this time last year when he finished second in a 10-furlong Listed race at Newmarket, with good yardsticks Top Notch Tonto and Wannabe Yours in behind.
He tried to make all that day and galloped on nicely once headed by the winner Restorer, suggesting that he'd be better over a mile and a half.
Indeed, he's been running well over further this season, winning a Group Three at Klampenborg in August before a career-best at the same level in the Stockholm Cup at Bro Park in Sweden last time, where he demolished another good yardstick in Hurricane Red by five lengths.
He looks to be thriving on that evidence, a galloping track like Newbury looks sure to suit and we know he can go well at this time of year – and in this country too.
It's tough to get a handle on how good his form from Denmark and Sweden is, and he might not be good enough, but his official rating went up to 110 on the back of his last run and that's just 3lb off the best of these.
I'm happy to take a chance on him at the prices.
He's one of the horses Gigginstown moved from Willie Mullins' recently and he jumped better on his stable debut at Gowran Park last time in a Grade Two won by his former stablemate, Balleycasey.
That was on yielding ground over two and a half miles which wouldn't be his ideal conditions, as he's much better over shorter and on better ground.
Saturday's test should be perfect for him then, and he should be competitive off a mark of 157 judging by his eight-length romp at Galway in the summer off 7lb lower.
Rachael Blackmore takes off 5lb and though this is just her second ride at Cheltenham she has been seen to good effect in tight handicaps during the last few weeks, winning on Magna Cartor at Punchestown and Summer Storm at Thurles.
Devils Bride likes to track a strong pace and he should get that with a handful of frontrunners in opposition while de Bromhead, who knows a thing or two about training two-milers, knows all about this horse's credentials at the trip, too, given he beat his former chaser Sizing Granite over two miles at Naas last year.
De Bromhead's horses performed well at Cheltenham on Friday as he had a winner and a second, and Devils Bride looks a big price to make his weekend in the Cotswolds even better.
*Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Value Bet column with guaranteed prices at 0900 on Saturday morning.
What does this mean? Sky Bet will agree to match the prices advised on all selections in the Value Bet column upon its publication for at least 15 minutes from 0900(BST) on Saturday. In the event of non-runners having had a material effect on the market since publication, Sky Bet will guarantee to offer the top-price in the market place.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +374.04pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Posted at 1720 BST on 21/10/16.
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